Anthropic maps three AI economies, from a mild boost to mass job loss

Anthropic’s model projects three 2030 scenarios: a modest case adds 1.6% to U.S. GDP; a substantial case doubles knowledge-work productivity, raising GDP to $36.3 trillion with unchanged knowledge-worker wages; an extreme case grows GDP 15% annually to $44.4 trillion, causing roughly 18% knowledge-worker unemployment and >10% wage cuts. The analysis assumes task-level AI impacts, omits policy, business cycles, and catastrophic risks, and matches a survey where most Americans anticipate the substantial outcome.