P(doom)

Dario Amodei estimates a 10-25% chance of catastrophic AI outcomes and proposes “pacing the frontier” through a third-party evaluator like METR, a move echoed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk. The author argues that the real threat lies in widespread nuisance-level botnets and the societal impact on non-AI-industry workers, while noting that OpenAI and Anthropic dominate the field and are increasingly straining public resources.