Why the AfD Wins

Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged to 28% nationwide support, topping the Christian Democratic Union’s 21% and reaching 42–43% in Sachsen-Anhalt, where its lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund holds 1.7 million social-media followers. The party’s rise coincides with four of its local leaders’ past membership in the neo-Nazi Heimattreue Deutsche Jugend, a group monitored by the Verfassungsschutz. Germany’s constitutional safeguards—5% threshold, surveillance, and the “firewall”—aim to prevent extremist parties from gaining seats, yet the AfD’s electoral success challenges these mechanisms.