With a Better Understanding of Physics, We Could Predict Volcanic Eruptions

In 1991, rapid instrument deployment at Pinatubo allowed scientists to assess its potential for a large eruption, leading to an evacuation that saved thousands of lives despite the forecast’s uncertainty. Advances in instrumentation, machine learning, and magmatic-plumbing knowledge have improved volcanic monitoring, and experts now believe probabilistic eruption forecasts comparable to weather predictions are becoming feasible.