Worst-case glacial lake flood scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin 2022

The model predicts worst-case GLOFs from Galongco, Jialongco, and a potential new lake created by a rock/ice avalanche upstream of Nyalam, with discharge at the Nepal border exceeding 15 times previous estimates. Simulated warning times are 5–11 minutes in Nyalam and roughly 30 minutes at the border. Recent water-level reductions at Jialongco do not lessen downstream infrastructure risk, indicating a need for integrated early-warning systems, land-use zoning, and local response programs.